A mere eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
